Update: The Chair of Peter is vacant. At 9:37 p.m. (Rome time; 2:37 p.m. Central) today, Saturday, 2 April, Pope John Paul II was gathered to his everlasting reward after a long illness.

Update: 12:59 p.m. CST. The Associated Press reports that the Vatican is denying Italian media reports stating that the pope was dead. His breathing is shallow and his kidneys are said to be failing. Multiple sources have reported that he has lost consciousness, but it appears that he has not yet died.

Update: 12:27 p.m. CST. CNN has just reported that Pope John Paul II has died. They're quoting a Reuters report quoting Italian wire sources, but no official word has yet been received from a Vatican source. Nor can I find a source online to confirm this report.

I will be cross-posting this to my own blog, Musing's musings. And since this is my first post here since we went live, I suppose a few words of introduction are in order. My name is Michael, I'm 41 years old, I'm gay, and I'm a practicing Catholic. One of the things I'll be blogging on here is the area of religion and spirituality, and this is the first such post.

I have academic degrees in chemistry, in classics (Greek), and in library science. I'm working on another one in modern European history, so that's also something you're likely to hear from me about. As my Unbossed biography notes, I'm always in earnest and rarely in doubt.

It appears that we will have a new pope this year, perhaps even this month. The latest bulletins are very grave (and getting worse), suggesting that Pope John Paul II has suffered a significant infection leading to septic shock and heart failure. His blood pressure is said to be highly unstable, although he remains conscious and lucid. He has decided not to return to the Gemelli Hospital, choosing to remain in his apartments in the Vatican.

This is a solemn and somber time for the Roman Catholic Church, even for those Catholics (like myself) who have disagreed with this pope on one or more of his policy positions. It is a time of potential promise as well, as we begin to consider likely or possible successors to the Great Bridge-Builder (Pontifex Maximus, one of the most ancient of the pope's ceremonial titles).

The next pope will be the fourth of my lifetime, though only the second since I became Catholic. I just missed the reign of John XXIII of blessed memory, being born under Paul VI. I was a teen-ager in 1978, the Year of Three Popes, when Paul VI died, and John Paul I was elected and then died a month later, culminating in October with the election of John Paul II.

For those of my readers who don't happen to be Catholic, let me offer a sketch of what will happen when the pope is gathered to his everlasting reward. The process of burying the old pope and electing his successor is a mix of centuries-old traditions and modern adaptations. The rules for the drama are spelled out in various Church documents, chiefly John Paul II's own apostolic constitution, Universi Dominici gregis.

When the pope dies, the Cardinal Camerlengo ("chamberlain") must certify the death. In past years, this was done by tapping on the forehead of the deceased pope with a silver hammer three times, calling him by his baptismal name and waiting for a response. I'm not sure if that tradition will be continued or not. The pope's study and bedroom will then be sealed, and his papal ring and seal will be destroyed so they cannot be used.

Arrangements will be made for the deceased pope to lie in state in the Basilica of St. Peter for a period of three days. A full nine days of mourning ceremonies will be offered for the pope, with a Mass for his intention offered each of those nine days. The pope's funeral will be celebrated between the fourth and the sixth days after his death, followed by burial in the crypt below the high altar of St. Peter's, near the bones of St. Peter himself.

Not less than 15 days, and not more than 20 days, after the pope's death, the conclave to elect his successor will open. All cardinals who have not attained their 80th birthday as of the pope's death are eligible to vote to elect his successor--and to become the next pope. Technically any practicing Catholic male is eligible to be elected, but it has been centuries since the last non-cardinal won election to the papacy.

Until a new pope is elected, all the Curial cardinals (the heads of the various congregations or "dicasteries" that actually run the Church) lose their powers, though their congregations continue to operate normally under the direction of their secretaries. Ordinary business of the Church is handled by a Particular Congregation composed of the Cardinal Camerlengo and three other cardinals, chosen by lot (one from each order--deacons, priests, and bishops) from among those cardinals resident or already present in Rome. More serious matters are referred to the General Congregation, composed of all the cardinal electors present in Rome at the time. But any decision that would require the assent or the advice of the pope must wait until a successor is chosen.

The cardinal electors are locked away from the outside world and prepare themselves by prayer and meditation for the task of electing the next pope. They must take an oath not to divulge what goes on within the conclave, and not to allow any outsider either to veto the selection made by the cardinals or to influence their votes. John Paul II had a special residence, the Domus Sanctae Marthae (St. Martha's House), built in Vatican City to house the cardinal electors and their attendants during conclaves. Previously, the cardinals would take cells carved out of various Vatican offices and apartments, hastily thrown up and very inconvenient in terms of bathroom facilities and other creature comforts. They are not allowed to have telephones or radios (and probably, in this modern age, computers capable of connecting to the internet) or any other means of communicating with the outside world, or allowing it to communicate with them.

It is considered bad form to campaign for election to the papacy, or to vote for oneself in the scrutinies (voting sessions). There are four such scrutinies each day of the conclave--two in the morning and two in the afternoon. Voting is carried out in the Sistine Chapel. After a series of prayers and a time of meditation, each cardinal elector writes the name of his choice on a ballot form, folds and seals it, and waits until he is called by name to tip it into a receptacle on the main altar in the chapel, under Michelangelo's fresco of the Last Judgement. The ballots are then mixed and counted, to ensure that neither more nor less are present in the receptacle than there are electors voting. Three scrutineers chosen by lot from among the cardinals remove the ballots one by one, reading them and recording the results. The third scrutineer reads each vote aloud so the other cardinals can keep track.

To be elected pope, a candidate must receive either two-thirds of the votes (if the number of cardinal electors can be evenly divided by three) or two-thirds plus one (if that number is not evenly divisible by three). If no candidate receives that number of votes, another vote can be taken immediately or deferred, as seems best to the cardinal electors. The ballots are again checked and counted, and will then be burnt in a small stove provided for that purpose in the chapel. If no pope has been elected, a chemical pellet will be added to the ballots to produce black smoke (formerly wet straw was used). Otherwise, only the ballots will be burned, producing white smoke announcing the election of a new pope.

That new pope will receive the allegiance of all the cardinals present, after which he will proceed to the papal apartments to be vested with the white robes of his office. The Cardinal Camerlengo and several other cardinals then conduct the new pope to the balcony above St. Peter's Square. The Camerlengo will announce the election with the Latin formula Nuntio vobis gaudium magnum: Habemus papam! ("I announce to you all a great joy: We have a pope!"), and then names him and announces the name by which he has chosen to be known as pope. The new pope then comes out to offer his first blessing urbi et orbi, to the city and to the world.

Speculation is always rampant at times like these about who will be the next pope. But there are a few important things to remember. First, campaigning is prohibited (or at least frowned upon). Any quid pro quo arrangement, promising a favor in return for a vote, is invalid. And there's an old, old saying that he who goes into the conclave a pope comes out of it a cardinal.

I've heard all sorts of allegations, and I don't put m uch stock in any of them. I think we can reasonably infer that the next pope will not be more conservative or reactionary than the present one. Historically, after a long pontificate such as John Paul II's, the choice of a successor has fallen upon someone with diametrically opposite views. That was the case with the only pope to reign longer than this one, Pius IX, known in Italian as "Pio Nono" both because "nono" means "nine" in that language, but also because of his reputation of being an obstructionist whose favorite word was "No." His succesor was Gioacchino Pecci, who became Leo XIII and who penned the first of the great "social" encyclicals, Rerum novarum.

I also don't think it's very likely that the next pope will be from the third world. It's certain he won't be from America. I'm betting on an Italian, after 26 years of a Polish pope, though any European would probably do. It's possible that we could see the election of what is commonly known as a "caretaker pope"--someone who belongs to no faction and supposedly has no agenda, and who is tacitly not expected to live very long. That permits the rest of the cardinal electors to consider the direction in which they would like the Church to go and the one they feel is best able to take it there. Of course, the last time the cardinals elected what they thought would be a caretaker, they got John XXIII of blessed memory, who convened the Second Vatican Council. And that could happen again. Personally, I'd like that, because I think we're sorely in need of another ecumenical council.

In the meantime, though I have profound disagreements with this pope on a number of policy issues, I am keeping him in my thoughts and prayers. God grant him the grace of a happy and painless death, and be good to him in the next life.